A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
